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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Ilaine who wrote (6635)8/5/2001 2:04:16 PM
From: Oblomov  Read Replies (2) of 74559
 
>Now I am starting to understand why fascism seems like a good idea during deflations. The people who weren't quite
>at the bottom of the ladder start looking down and seeing that the jobs they are going to have to compete for are
>being done by recent immigrants. So they want to throw the immigrants out. Then they get mad at the capitalists
>because the jobs are shitty and backbreaking and don't pay much. They have to work twice as hard for half as much
>money.

Good observations. In my view, deflation marks the turning point of a culture - a 'crisis' in the original, literal sense of the word. It signals the end of an old social order that has insufficient impetus for further expansion. It confuses and frustrates those who lack a deep understanding of history, because such people tend to take their behavioral cues from their peer group rather than from an independent set of standards. And so they (J6P) retrench, both financially and socially. The financial retrenchment appears as deflationary recession, and the social one crops up as a desire for order - as moral conservatism in some form or another, nationalism, and backlash against pluralism. It seems that the desire for pluralism and tolerance sits high atop our hierarchy of needs, and so we abandon it when our old social constructs are under siege.

Of course, during an expansion period, there is social change, too. But is within the continuity of a broader set of organizing principles.

I believe that we have been witnessing the death of the transnational managerial capitalist system that emerged after WWII. I'm not sure what will replace it, but whatever it is, it will probably be less hospitable to American hegemony.

(It seems that the extremes of high inflation and sharp deflation prompt different social reactions. High inflation seems to create a need for classic matriarchal order, which appears as socialism - "the hive". Deflation, on the other hand, leads to the patriarchal extreme of fascism - "the herd". I don't know if there is merit to this framework. I haven't thought it through completely.)
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