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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: rolatzi who wrote (115640)8/5/2001 3:43:48 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
Grantham Gets It:

Q: You say we're still in a bubble. Everyone else thinks this is a bear market.
A: The peak was March 2000 and the market has come down a lot, but it has a whole lot further to fall. Great bear markets take their time. In 1929, we started a 17-year bear market, succeeded by a 20-year bull market, followed
in 1965 by a 17-year bear market, then an 18-year bull. Now we are going to have a one-year bear market? It doesn't sound very symmetrical. It is going to take years. We think the 10-year return from this point is negative 50 basis
points [a basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point] after inflation. We take inflation out to make everything consistent.

Exactly!
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