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The Steve Puetz Letter
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E-mail: StevePuetz@msn.com
JULY 23 ~ There is [a] problem with the idea that tax rebates can spark an economic recovery. Whatever money is spent on rebates must be siphoned off from investors in the capital markets. As a result of the ongoing economic slowdown, tax collections have fallen. Washington is back into deficit territory again. So the transfer of payments is really a sterile transaction. Economic activity is dampened in one area to boost activity in another. Hence, Wall Street economists continued to look through their rose-colored glasses. The bulls continue to deny reality until it hits them in the face. Tax rebates are an insignificant economic factor.
-- Steve Puetz
Moneyletter
360 Woodland St., Holliston, Mass. 01746
www.moneyletter.com
JULY 27 ~ Alan Greenspan has spoken and the markets yawned. Did he hint at another rate cut? So what, said Wall Street, what difference have previous cuts made? Wall Street is skeptical. "Show Me the Money" is its mantra. For a group that is supposed to discount the future, Wall Street's horizon has shrunk to next quarter's earnings. Forget next year … forget the longer-term outlook.
As earnings reports come out, no one is talking cheerily about the outlook for profits in the near term. This is especially true for manufacturing, and even more so for its technology subsector. In fact, the tone of remarks about business this quarter continues to be one of caution. In some prominent cases, expectations are being guided downward.
Many people, ourselves included, have been looking for a recovery in the second half. We still believe we'll see one, but later than we expected. The manufacturing CEOs, however, don't see a recovery at hand, and Wall Street is giving every sign that such forecasts have lost their credibility.
-- Walter S. Frank |
