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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob

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To: antman2182 who wrote (41938)8/6/2001 12:28:41 AM
From: xtahce   of 100058
 
Not to rain on DrKW's parade but...

...But Edwards (DrKW Global Equity Strategist) predicted revisions included in the second quarter productivity data will knock a full percentage point off longer-term estimates of productivity growth. He said trend productivity growth could be closer to 1.5 percent than the 2.5 percent many now predict....

Predictions for the "Preliminary" Productivity report for Q2 are 1.6%. A "Revised" Q2 report will be issued Wednesday Sept 5th. Expectations of revisions to the past 3yrs for Productivity numbers are already out there:

...Economists polled by Reuters forecast that U.S. productivity grew by only 1.6 percent in the second quarter of this year, compared with 6.3 percent for the same period last year....Analysts also expect the past three years of productivity numbers to be revised down following the government's recent downward revisions in GDP growth...
smartmoney.com

...Because productivity can be quite volatile from one quarter to the next and because the previously released GDP report will give a good indication of productivity growth, this report seldom has a significant impact on the market.

In addition to the preliminary report, a revision to the productivity data is released in the third month of each quarter. As with the preliminary report, the
GDP data released prior to the productivity data provide a clear indication of the direction of the productivity revision.
biz.yahoo.com

In the most recent GDP report the GDP for 2000 was revised downward to 4.1% from previous 5.0%
bea.doc.gov

But then again DrKW are having problems of their own....about 1,500 of them:

ANALYSIS-Allianz U-turn spells end of the road for DrKW

....Allianz and Dresdner are hoping that the depressed market environment will make it harder for senior staff to quit DrKW and are not planning any special measures to retain key people....
smartmoney.com

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