re: IF we get a strong market rally that seems to falter at old highs like a double top, perhaps in 2002, then I might lighten up my asset allocation.......
There are several million other (newly cautious) investors with the same idea. Me, I'll be back to 70-90% cash (as I was in the first half of 2000), long before the Nas is at 5K. 3K would represent a near-doubling off 2001 lows. When the rush for the exits happens, only the people at the head of the line get out intact. Those will be the people, then as in 2000, who sold based entirely on valuation, before the warning signs (double tops, faltering fundamentals, etc.) I will eat my hat (wide-brim, red nylon), including the chin strap, if we hit 5K on the Nas anytime before 2005. |
