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Strategies & Market Trends : Trade/Invest with Options Jerry a Point & Figure Chartist

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To: Dan Duchardt who wrote (3047)	8/7/2001 2:49:47 AM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) of 5893

First, let me point out that I use only end of day values for these fork charts. Other time frames and high/low/open/close kinds of charts have value .. I just don't do them. re "tale of two forks" This is the last time that I used that phrase on this thread: #reply-15608696 dated 4/3 after market close. At the time, I believe, I was looking at only two descending forks and had not, as yet, found any ascending. The next main fork had it's bottom tine defined at the close of the following day, 4/4 which was a Thursday. By Saturday I had already posted the potential for a thin ascending fork here #reply-15630591 . That fork finally failed on 6/6. By 5/24 the current descending fork had been posted. Before that two or three potential descending forks had been proposed. These all failed. For all of these I had used the current starting center and lower points. When the thin ascending fork failed that sealed the late May high as the upper tine starting point for the new descending fork. Using the current lower and upper descending fork starting points, I've posted three different forks. The other two posted used different center starting highs. 2/15 and 1/30. The fork that resulted from the 1/30 center had one main problem, from my point of view. That is that the SPX crossed the resulting center line before it arrived at the starting lower point. After posting it for a few days, the SPX closed over that upper tine a few times only to get pulled back in. That action "red flagged" that fork for me. The fork that resulted from the 2/15 center start point worked very very well for a long time. At least six times the index rose up to that upper tine and then pulled back. When it finally failed the current ascending fork was already posted. While the fork with the 2/15 center was very strong, the first fork with the current center starting point, was still in place. The upper tine had never been tested until last Thursday. That upper tine is now the last hurdle to cross for the new ascending fork to take over. If the new fork fails first, the SPX risks a drop of ~250 points. The movement that takes place within the next few days should set the market direction for several weeks. The overlap of these two forks ends 8/15-8/16. We won't have to wait that long.

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