Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 265.39

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3:59 PM EST

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To: michael97123 who wrote (50251)	8/7/2001 12:16:18 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Actually CSFB was misquoted. They did not say "significant" structural issues that are overshadowing structural issues." What they actually said was: The current downturn is more UNLIKE than LIKE any preceding downturn. There are significant STRUCTURAL issues (lack of product drivers, significant financing “bubble”) that are overshadowing CYCLICAL trends (inventory, supply). The “typical” metrics such as inventory burn-off, capacity utilization, book to bill, and order rates are not sufficient to call an inflection point in fundamentals. Our argument is two-fold: (1) We are not at a bottom for SCE fundamentals, and most likely we are not within 20% of a bottom and (2) even when a bottom is established, growth from the bottom will be lackluster at best.

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