Re: "How did Mr Kumar do on the same issue?"
Here's Ashok Kumar's BULLISH comments - in late August, 2000:
{===============================}
Intel Corporation (INTC - 73 7/8) August 29, 2000
Ashok Kumar, CFA, 650-233-2289, akumar@pjc.com; Amir K. Ahari,
650-233-2271,
aahari@pjc.com;
Paul H. Mansky, 612-303-6474, pmansky@pjc.com
Flogging A Dead Horse?
Rating: Strong Buy, Aggressive
Price: $73 7/8 52-Week Range $75 13/16 - $32 1/2
FY End: December 12-Month Price Target (50 x 2000 EPS
Estimate) $90
Shares Out (Mil) 6,698
EPS* 1998 1999 2000E Market Cap (Bil) $494.8
Mar $0.20 $0.29 $0.35A Average Daily Volume (Mil) 33.6
Jun $0.17 $0.25 $0.45A Book Value $2.62
Sept $0.22 $0.28 $0.42E Dividend $0.03
Dec $0.30 $0.35 $046E Debt/Total Cap 2.4%
FY $0.89 $1.16 $1.74E 3-5 Year EPS Growth Rate 20%
P/E 83.1x 63.7x 42.5x Mkt. Cap. /FY99 Revenue 16.8x
Mkt. Cap. /FY00 Revenue 14.2x
Revs ($ Bil) 1998 1999 2000E 00 P/E to Growth 2.1x
Mar $6.0 $7.1 $8.0A
Jun $5.9 $6.8 $8.3A
Sept $6.7 $7.3 $9.3E
Dec $7.6 $8.2 $9.9E Quarter End September 30, 2000
FY $26.3 $29.4 $35.4E Reporting Date October 2000
* Tables may not add due to rounding. Operating EPS. EPS reflects 2:1 stock
split.
Highlights:
Intel has halted production and instituted a recall of its flagship 1.13
GHz
Pentium III processors. This is primarily because Intel is pushing both
the
process (0.18 micron/aluminum) and PIII micro architecture (a five year old
core) envelope. As a result, some circuit is intermittently failing at
1.13
GHz. It will probably take a mask change and 30-60 days to restart
shipments.
We estimate that the company has shipped less than 10,000 units to date
and,
as such, the financial toll is negligible. Also, given that these products
populate high-end systems priced at about $3,000, the opportunity cost is
minimal.
Intel is pushing an aging architecture too hard to outrun AMD's (AMD-#)
Athlon. Having missed the transition to copper interconnects on its 0.18
micron process has not helped either. The company is announcing products
they cannot ship and, it turns out, do not even work properly. While the
financial impact is negligible, it makes Intel look bad to their customers
and gives PC OEMs one more excuse to use Athlon instead. P4 should fix the
speed problem, but it will take longer to fix the image problem.
___________________________________________________________________________
Nondeposit investment products are not insured by the FDIC, are
not deposits or other obligations of or guaranteed by U.S. Bank
National Association or its affiliates, and involve investment
risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. We consider
our sources reliable. Accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed.
Information is subject to change. Transactional details should not
be relied on for tax purposes and do not supersede normal trade
confirmations or statements. Messaging outside U.S. jurisdictions
from U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray to non-institutional parties is not
intended for solicitation purposes.
Electronic mail sent through the Internet is not secure. We will
not accept time-sensitive, action-oriented messages, transaction
orders, fund transfer instructions or check stop payments
electronically.
If you are not the intended recipient, notify the Sender. This
information is intended only for the person named above and for
the purposes indicated. Do not distribute this message without
written consent of the author. Non-business opinions may not
reflect opinions of U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray and its affiliates.
U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray and its affiliates reserve the right to
monitor all e-mail.
Securities products and services are offered through
U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray Inc., member SIPC and NYSE, Inc.,
a subsidiary of U.S. Bancorp.
___________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________ |
