Pete, Re: "Intel plans to continue the price war after they forecast they would not (in the Q2 CC) that things would go back to normal."
You're argument seems fairly well based on this statement, yet your foundation is not built quite so well as you think. As a matter of fact, Intel said no such thing about price wars. Instead, they said they would accelerate their roadmaps, and put Pentium 4 systems down to $800 price points. That sounds to me like they had anticipated the price drops, and already figured them in to their estimates. Here is a clip from JC's Intel Q2 CC notes (Paul Otellini is speaking).
jc-news.com
"The combination of the health of the Pentium 4 processor, the availability of the 845 chipset, and the capacity we are bringing online in 2001, have put us in a position of initiating a major acceleration of our desktop roadmap. Over the course of the second half, we will be increasing the performance of the entry level Pentium 4 to 1.5GHz, while taking the highest performing versions above 2GHz. As this roadmap is combined with the system cost reductions the 845 chipset enables, we expect Pentium 4 systems to replace all mainstream PC system price points above 800 dollars by the fourth quarter. These roadmap and price changes go into effect in August, in time for OEMs to take maximum advantage of the upcoming Windows XP system sales and launch."
wanna_bmw |
