Dataquest shifts chip forecast to 'downside' scenario with 25.8% drop in 2001
By Semiconductor Business News
Aug 8, 2001 (7:19 AM)
URL: siliconstrategies.com
SAN JOSE -- With market conditions still extremely weak, Dataquest Inc. here has officially lowered its forecast for semiconductor revenues to the company's "downside" scenario, showing a 25.8% decline in chip revenues to $168.2 billion in 2001 from last year's record $226.5 billion.
In a newsletter to subscribers this week, Dataquest lamented, "The seasonal demand cycle for PCs and cellular handsets has not kicked in as of yet, and there is still too much inventory on the shelves." However, the San Jose market research firm did say that it now appears the chip industry and troubled systems segments may have hit a rocky bottom in the current slump during the second quarter.
Prior to this week, Dataquest's outlook called for a 17% drop in semiconductor revenues this year, followed by a 13% increase in 2002.
Nearly all key semiconductor applications were hit hard in Q2. PC shipments were down for the first time in a year-to-year comparison in the second quarter at 30.4 million units worldwide, a decline of 1.9% from a year ago, Dataquest noted. Demand for ICs from wired communications systems was off by 45% from a year ago, and workstation shipments were 14.6% lower than Q2 of 2000 at 344,580 systems, according to the research firm.
Semiconductor sales could slip slightly lower in the current third quarter, hinging upon pricing in memory markets, wanted Dataquest. Presently, the outlook is for a 1.5% increase in Q3 but the new forecast shows a revised "downside" scenario with revenues falling 5.0% from last year. In Q2, chip sales dropped 19.5% from the quarter last year, Dataquest concluded.
The new outlook shows semiconductor revenues increasing at a compound annual growth rate of just 5.8% from 2000 to 2005--far below the historical average of nearly 17% over the past several decades.
Dataquest's new chip forecast
Year Revenues % change
2000 $226.48 billion +32.7%
2001 $168.15 billion -25.8%
2002 $188.03 billion +11.8%
2003 $234.01 billion +24.5%
2004 $298.92 billion +27.7%
2005 $299.85 billion +0.3%
Dataquest Aug. 6 forecast |
