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Technology Stocks : INTEL- Money Making Option Ideas for Small Investors
INTC 39.50-1.2%Nov 3 3:59 PM EST

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To: B Hamilton who wrote (44)6/19/1997 3:03:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF   of 201
 
Dow at 12000 P/E of 30- A reality or a myth? What role will INTC play?

Subject: "IDEA OF THE DAY"-Trading in&out for profits.

To: +NYraj (917 )
From: +IQBAL LATIF Jun 19 1997 2:56AM EST
Reply #925 of 925

NY RAJ - Your question is pertinent but let me answer you in an unconventional manner, first lets look at total market cap of stock markets in US, over top of my head I think it would be 10 trillion $'s, now assume market is trading at a multiple of 20 so presently the total earnings are around 500 billion $.

For DOW to be 12 thousand next year this total market cap will increase to 14 trillion$, p/e of 30 would actually mean total earnings of entire stock market will actually drop to 470 billion $, so this talk of DOW at 12000 needs to be seen in light of whats going to happen with the earnings, in face of stagnating earnings I doubt it very much, market is not prepared to overlook earning short falls, if total earnings drop we me see a lower DOW not a higher.

Look at other side of coin, p/e ratios are function of price and earnings, a higher p/e ratio represents lower earnings, do you see what they did with Orcl and MU that market is going to overlook this slippage in earnings of any majors, look even at INTC earning shortfall took twenty off INTC instead of being a 200$ stock we are talking of resistance at 140$.
Going forward in face of robust economic growth and a contained inflationary environment we may see US corporations benefitting from pockets of new prosperity in Asia.

This potential is unlimited e.g. Indonesia or India even China would need if not more equal to present internet connections what you have in US round about 50 million and that is just 2.5% of total population of 2 billion. The numbers are just mind bogling and if someone has true big picture I don't see why IBM or MSFT or INTC the winners alone would not take markets past new highs. This future potential is a little seious thing for short term traders and therefore delicate for them to quantify. For me some of these companies should trade at a huge premium to the market, until it is not so we try to look ar resistance at 140 or making some quick buck out of MSFT as it slips towards 128$.
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