dear westy..just for you<G>...my Sunday nite newsletter...and this am's update for da troops..
westy..you need some rest pal...he he he he
Message 16182422
Good Morning all...
just a quick update here as we move thru the sorrid summer doldrums...because of NO volume things are slowing to a crawl...i would be ultra cautious here as you'll get chopped up trying to FORCE a trade out of BOREDUM..
don't be foolish folks...if you can't make any money buy 11 am est, then just close up shop and try to spend some time with the kids and the wife or whatever...get out of the damn house!!!!!
there will be plently of time to trade thru the FOMC this month, and beyond...August is like molasses...slower than sludge...why gamble here...do not do it...relax, rest up, get healthy, work out...just do something other than staring at the screen all day...
yesterday was my 1st time in the room all day...i won't be doing that again this summer...there was nothing to do...AND MY BACK HURT ME<G>...
Ok where are we headed...Like i said we need a pullback in all the indexs..the SOX index was 100% overbought..and will pullback here..do not buy the semis just yet, even though there is soild interest in the sector...wait till we bottom here..let's see if 580 holds as i said it's a perfect 3 box reversal back down on the chart to set up the next best run toward 700....
the Fundies are toe dipping into the semis as we speak...but they will puke them out in OCT for sure..WE ARE NOT INVESTING..DO NOT PUT ANY REAL MONEY IN ANY STOCKS SECTORS OR WHATEVER..WE'LL BUY THE GOOD STOCKS LATE FALL WHEN EVERYONE IS CRYING.."GET ME OUT"....
THIS WILL BE IMO, THE BEST BUYING OPPORTUNITY IN YEARS...THIS IS WHERE I'LL INVEST MY HARD EARNED DOLLARS FOR THE "LONG HAUL"..NOT HERE,... AND NOT NOW!!!!!!...SO BE COOL...OK?..
AS WE LOOK AT THE INDEXS....WE MUST SEE WHERE SUPPORT IS DURING THIS SLOW GRIND DOWN INTO THE FOMC....WE COULD TEST THESE SUPPORT AREAS AS FOLLOWS..
DJIA---10,250...TO 10,150....10,350-300 IS A NORMAL PULLBACK EXPECTED...
NAZ--COMPX....1950 IS NORMAL...1900 A TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAKDOWN...COULD TAKE IT TO MY DOWNSIDE TARGET OF 1800 QUICKLY..WATCHING...
SOX---580 THE NORMAL PULLBACK...540 IS STRONG SUPPORT....520 WOULD BE THE TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAKDOWN AND TAKE THIS INDEX TO 460 FAST...SO WE ARE NOT INVESTING YET INTO THE SEMIS..THINK OF WHERE OUR FAVORITE SEMIS STOCKS WOULD BE AT 460 SOX MAYBE THIS FALL HUH????<VBG>...
BTK---500 IS SOLID SUPPORT, BUT 490 IS A BIG BREAKDOWN...COULD TAKE THIS INDEX TO 450 QUICKLY..THE BIO'S WOULD BE EXCELLENT SHORTS..BUT I AM SEEING SIGNS OF CHART DEVELOPMENT RIGHT HERE..LET'S SEE IF 500 CAN HOLD...
SPX---1190 AS I SAID IS THE NORMAL 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN...OFF THAT DOUBLE TOP AT 1220...1170 IS THE TRIPLE BOTTOM AREA WE HIT ON THAT FATEFUL WENSDAY EVENING I SAID GO LONG THE SEMIS HARD...WHICH WE DID..SO LET'S SEE HOW HARD THEY WANT TO TAKE US DOWN IN FRONT OF THE FOMC....
VIX---IT'S HANGING AT VERY LOW LEVELS HERE...AFTER THAT DOUBLE BOTTOM BREAKDOWN AT 23...I WOULD LOVE TO SEE IT RALLY BACK UP TO 28 AGAIN...THAT WOULD BE COOL....I DO NOT THINK THERE'S ENOUGH VOLUME OUT THERE TO DO IT THO???....SO 26 IS MY FIRST TARGET...
QQQ'S---IF YOU TRADE THESE...41 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL DOWN..40 EXCELLENT SUPPORT..BUT 39 IS A MAJOR BREAKDOWN TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAK...THATS YOUR STOP IF YOU DECIDE TO GO LONG...
IF YOU THINK ABOUT EVERYTHING I JUST WROTE HERE...YOU'LL SEE THAT WE NEED TO HOLD RECENT SUPPORT..PLEASE SET ALERTS ON "ALL" INDEXS CAUSE WE COULD ROLL DOWN TO SUPPORT EVERYWHERE AND THEN RALLY UP HARD INTO EARLY SEPT AFTER THE FED MEETING...
SO IT LOOKS LIKE CARPINO IS THINKING WE SLOWLY SELL OFF HERE, AND THEN SET UP FOR A CYCLE HIGH LATER THIS MONTH INTO SEPT...HIS CYCLE LOW DATES ARE THE 19-21ST AREA RIGHT IN FRONT OF THE FED...THIS HAS HAPPENED EACH TIME IN FRONT OF THE MEETING...WILL IT HAPPEN AGAIN???...WE'LL SEE...
DO NOT CHASE STOCKS HERE..LET THEM COME TO YOU...WATCH THE VOLUME ON THESE SLOW TRADING DAYS...YOU CAN SCALP SHORT ALL THE SEMIS FOR DAYTRADES, BUT I DOUBT YOU'LL BE ABLE TO HOLD THEM FOR SWING TRADES...
ANYWAY...I GOT SOME COMPANY FROM TEXAS LATE YESTERDAY...SO WILL BE SPENDING TODAY WITH THEM..
ALL THE BEST TO YOU...PLEASE TRADE LIGHTLY...SHARPEN YOUR SKILLS BY USING 100-200 SHARE LOT SIZE FOR SCALPS LONG OR SHORT..DRAW THOSE 30 MINUTE HIGHS AND LOWS ON ALL STOCKS AND INDEXS...GET YOUR SELF SOME CONFIDENCE IN YOUR TRADING ABILITY..THIS IS A PERFECT TIME TO HONE YOUR SKILLS...
TRY TRADING THE 20 EMA 5 MINUTE ALL DAY USING THE TREND FOR YOUR GUIDE...BUY ALL PULLBACKS TO THE 20 IN UP DAYS ON TRENDING STOCKS...AND SELL ALL RALLIES AS BACKSIDE BOUNCES INTO THE 20 EMA OVERHEAD ON TREND DAYS DOWN..PRACTISE THIS WITH SMALL SIZE LOTS..AND SCALP QUICKLY...
OK, NUFF SAID..HAVE A GOOD ONE...
BEST
JER |
