Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end?

YHOO 52.58

0.0%

Jun 26 5:00 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (3458)	8/9/2001 6:03:32 AM
From: Bilow	of 3543

Hi Kerry J. Carmichael; I'm not sure that this time is at all similar. Probably the crux of the difference is that 1982 was not just a lousy year for stocks, it was the end of a lousy decade. And stocks were dirt cheap then, they aren't that cheap yet: "A better yardstick is book value, which shows that today's market is no higher than the darkest days of 1974. ''The S.& P. 500 hasn't sold below book, and the Dow hasn't sold more than 20 percent below book since 1932,'' pointed out Morgan Stanley's Mr. Biggs. In 1974, the S.& P.'s price divided by the book value of its component companies was 1.0 while the Dow's was 0.8. Today the S.&P.'s is again 1.0 and the Dow's is a shade lower, 0.78." Current DOW book value is what, around 1950? That's an 80% drop from where we are. Here's a chart with some sort of thingy having to do with book value and the DJIA: gold-eagle.com This feels a lot more like the late '60s to me. Low inflation but rising, big time money printing, go-go stock market just ending, economy booming but slowing... Give it another decade and a half, maybe then it'll feel like 1982 again, but I hope better, 1982 sucked! -- Carl

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next