Welcome to the Bear Market - Half Time Show ~
...yes; H-A-L-F T-I-M-E !
Not only is it not over - 'till it's over; but it aint even close to being over... the "real" Market Pain is yet to come; as THIS is NOT going to be the first mania bubble to bottom at S&P/broad market valuation multiples nearly 50% over historic norms - hello people ?
Halftime is a good time to re-evaluate not just the scoreboard results so far, but one's gameplan on both sides of the ball - both offensive & defensive strategies.
Yesterday GM's CEO (as GM goes - so goes the USA) stated that the lofty King Dollar is quote/unquote - "DESTROYING THE US MANUFACTURING BASE."
... no $hit - $herlock !?!?!
Anyone who didn't get whipsawed by getting caught sitting at the bar at last call; by the recent "final days" hype job by the Oil & Gas analysts in the May Pump to June's Dump, or wasn't a PermaBullian all the way down last year from NASDQ 4000 to 2000 and then suddenly came to Jesus and became a "Big Bad 4-legged Mexican Hairless- Short" at NASDQ 1800... has probably realized that Rubin & Greenpimp backed the US Economy into a Catch-22 Corner here - dollarwise.
The greatest CEO of all CEO's - GE's Jack Welch - said this is the - "worst recession in the US Manufacturing sector in 20 years."
... the worst US recession in 20 years; yet we are STILL at broad market multiples nearly 50% above the recent decades mean valuation multiple norm ?!?!?!?! - Hell-F'n-O people ?
... have they put something in the water supply, or what (VBG)?
Roebear's post last night, states Hong Kong Bankruptcies have risen a massive 77% over the last 18 months.
In Japan - the Bad Loans the banks are STILL carrying on their books represent between 40-60% of Japanese GDP ! ... and where is the Nikkei ?
In the US we are having banks merge, not because they want to, but because they HAVE to... if what was going on behind the scene's in the US AND Global Banking system was public knowledge - Greenspan would be run out of town...Subprime lender - Superior Bank just went under & the recent suprime acquisitions by Citigroup of subprime finance companies Commerical Credit & Associates was in the opinion of many - the only solution that anyone with suprime exposure has - that being to continually acquire, or generate new revenue exponentially to collapsing credit quality, charge off's & deliquencies - in a near Ponzi-esque fashion.
Conseco was a stock I spoke about & shorted heavy a couple of months ago and it just collapsed here - and Carl Ichan just shorted another 1/2 Million shares (VBG)~ rember Conseco brilliantly acquired subprime & manufactured home lending specialist Greentree financial, but no longer had the currency, or capital to keep the balls in the air.
Remember that article that I posted from GoldenEagle a while back that listed the derivative exposure of US Banks ?
... go back & find it - it's a wake up call/reality check.
Is the global financial system going to collapse - are the "END TIMES" near ? .... no. That's not what many are saying... what we are saying is that Rubin led the Rape & Pillage by Wall Streets Insiders (Goldman Sachs finally coming public and then issuing a secondary was more than an Omen (VBG) & that Greenpimp failed to apply the emergency brakes "SOON ENOUGH" are the issues - and the MAJOR point being that the unwinding & inevitabel collapse of a credit/market bubble is NOT going to BOTTOM at levels & market valuation multiples STILL nearly 50% above the trailing decade norms.
All we've seen is Greenpimp buying time & throwing orts to the masses ($300 rebate checks - what a joke)... he doesn't know what to do, rate cuts are NOT working - he knows they can't cure the disease, but they can mask some of the symptoms...
Time & Pain are reality... deal with it people !
We've got more Time and MUCH MORE PAIN coming - and we deserve it.
Greenspan pounded Congress into adopting new Bank Failure reform a while back & it got little press coverage. We spoke about it here & now it's apparent that credit quality and the derivative problems are bubbling to the surface and all this behind the scene's M&A action is NOT what it appears to be on the surface and there are HUGE problems in the US Financial's... H-U-G-E.
Rubin got while the getting was good & imho, will go down historically as one of the "GREAT RAT BASTARDS" in US history... he literally led the raping of America financially & was the front man in one of the greatest transfers of wealth in history... that being from the US Investor Class to the Investment Bankers & Derivative players. Now, Greenpimp has backed himself into a Catch-22/can't win situation with the US Dollar.... let it fall & foreign repatriation will collapse the US equity & Bond markets to real "classic & historic" Bear Market Capitulation levels... keep it strong & the US Corporations earnings keep getting eroded and the US Manufacturing & Export Sectors collapse, the layoffs ramp, umenmployment creates political stress fractures and the economy will not be able to be jump-started by any amount of rate cuts.
Gold is the antithesis to the Catch-22/Bubble-mania blow off reality that is unfolding here. There is no Fiat Currency that is the answer... history has shown us what is, was and will allways be the answer in times like these..... Gold (and silver) - will be the answer.... when, not if.
Gold is money - is, was and will allways be M-O-N-E-Y and we are in a global monetary crisis...we are seeing Fiat unmasked and we've got a multitude of potential systemic crisis catalysts, unfolding all over the globe ... when, not if - tic, toc ~
This is NOT a time to be holding US stocks at valuation multiples STILL nearly 50% over their historic norm.... NOT A SINGLE F'N SHARE LONG - not a penny.
Bonds, CD's, hard assets, Cash and whatever amount of Gold, Silver & mining stocks you can amass (VBG)... and if you have the experience & the stomach for shorting - have at it people - come on in... the water's just fine ~
The US consumer has a negative savings rate & a $300 rebate check from Uncle "W" - doesn't change anything, it's a headfake - diversionary tactic; nothing more, nothing less.
The ongoing massive wave of corporate layoff's is just starting... JUST STARTING and the first wave has not even had time to work it's way sentimentwise, thru the US consumer cycle...the Consumer will be taken out & shot on a when & not an if basis... soon, very soon (VBG).
Hard to imagine with Germany rolling over, with Japan's machine orders just reporting a 50% greater collapse than expected this qtr (-6% vs -4% expectations) with the US manufacuring sector crumbling & American CEO's screaming for a lower US Dollar - that everyone hasn't hedged their portfolio's with 5-15% gold/silver stocks yet ?!?!?!(VBG
)... and remember - all it takes is a micro-shift in sentiment toward the gold/silver stocks... just a teeny-tiny, micro move by the masses... just a partial hedge position - that's all.
That's all this sector has ever needed as the entire market capitalization of the Gold/Silver mining sector pales in comparison to single company Tech Stocks.
... when, not if & soon, very soon; it will all be about - "how much ya got, not if ya got some"...
I added another 10% here of late - now 40% Gold/Silver stocks on a portfolio weighted basis and I am not long a single solitary share of stock in ANYTHING else... not a stinkin' penny....short 30% broad market stocks and 30% cash/bonds.
Gloom & Doom ?
- no; just reality...nothing more, nothing less - just R-E-A-L-I-T-Y ... and someday soon; just watch (VBG) - we'll have packs of chihuahua's returning to this thread after the "Great Gold & Silver" move - trying to sneak back in the back door - masquerading as golden-chihuahua's...just as they've magically morphed into Oilpatch Bears of late - after the fact of course ~
Got Gold ?
... make that "GET GOLD !"
- as Nike says - JUST DO IT ~
... our time & opportunity has arrived. |
