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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 78.10

-0.4%

2:45 PM EST

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To: Jacob S. Rosenberg who started this subject	8/9/2001 12:03:55 PM
From: tradermike_1999	Read Replies (4) of 77400

The market is obviously in a downtrend since the May high. It will likely continue to fall this fall especially when earnings warnings pickup. If you look at all of the sentiment indicators Investors Intelligence, VIX, VXN, put/call ratios than it is obvious that the market reached an overbought condition in the end of May and beginning of July. It will take a fall to rectify this and the market will go down to at least the April lows within the next 10 weeks. This is a time for the average investor to be defensive. Don't buy bubble stocks. Check your portfolio. If you have stocks that have poor relative strength - meaning they did not go up as much as the broader market did since the april bottom - you better sell them now! They couldn't rally and will lead the downside. Garbage stocks like NT, JNPR, LU, JDSU will fall 50% or more. If you want to be aggressive than you inititiate short positions now. Key here is survival. IF you protect your equity you'll be in a position to re-enter the market once this decline ends and buy into sectors that hold up. During the last decline REIT, auto dealership, and medical research companeis - held and some stocks actually advanced. After April they exploded. You'll be able to repeate this in different sectors after this decline ends. The investor who buys into the tech junk stocks now is going to get badly burned. Smart money already cashed out of those stocks this summer and left the general public and hopeless new economy bubbleheads holding the bag. This is it. You have time to adjust your portfolio and cushion yourself for the coming collapse. Please jettison any stocks with poor relative strength or at least put stops on them. Don't be a victim of the tech wreck. Be in a position to profit once the dust settles.

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