AUG 9 INDEX UPDATE
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Short-term technical readings:
DOW - lower midrange/borderline oversold, INTRADAY BORDERLINE CLASS 1 BUY, imperfect DRAGONFLY
SPX - oversold, INTRADAY BORDERLINE CLASS 1 BUY, imperfect DRAGONFLY DOJI
OEX - oversold, INTRADAY BORDERLINE CLASS 1 BUY, imperfect DRAGONFLY DOJI
NAZ - oversold, INTRADAY BORDERLINE CLASS 1 BUY, DRAGONFLY DOJI
NDX - oversold, INTRADAY BORDERLINE CLASS 1 BUY, DRAGONFLY DOJI
USD - midrange
VIX - midrange
NAZ NET NEW HIGHS-LOWs - negative 42
5 DAY TRIN - 9.05, 4 days in a row over 6.0
Intraday I did get borderline ClASS 1 BUY signals. As mentioned often, INTRADAY signals are not as reliable as those on a closing basis.
We got quite a few DRAGONFLY DOJI's, which are common at reversal pivot points. All the major indicies rallied significantly off of their intraday lows, giving the hint that some sort of a reversal may have started; however I only got BORDERLINE CLASS 1 BUY signals which are not as reliable as closing signals therefore there is still a possibility of a little more downside to get a firm CLASS 1 BUY.
The 5-DAY TRIN gave a high reading of 9.08 and has traded 4 days in a row above 6.08, which is supporting the possibility of some sort of a rally.
The NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs closed in negative territory, which I interpret as a negative. Of course it could be a one day thing, but if it does not improve significantly and soon, that would add to the negativity and hint that this forthcoming short-term rally may not last too long. Another issue is that OMINOUS bearis RISING WEDGE in the HIGHs-LOWs. I suspect that if the NEW NEW HIGHS-LOWs continue in negative territory it would turn that it down and break that WEDGE to the downside - WHICH AINT GOOD. Watching the HI-LOs carefully.
stockcharts.com
A short-term rally may have started today, but Im not expecting that this short-term rally to be that strong, especially if the NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs do not improve significantly. If the rally did not start, then its only about a day away.
As mentioned yesterday, my VIX readings are still not in line with the readings on the major indices. Its implying that there is more downside in the indices before the VIX gets to a CLASS SELL(inverse to market), so the VIX readings are not support the borderline CLASS 1 BUY signals in the indices. Another reason why I went with a hedge instead of closing my shorts.
Since I feel that possibly a short-term rally started today I evenly hedged our short position in both our website and my personal mutual fund accounts. I went with an even hedge rather than close the short positions since I feel that the larger trend is still down and that this short-term rally may just be a small up oscillation. |
