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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin
RMBS 95.17+4.1%10:37 AM EST

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To: Jdaasoc who wrote (77087)8/9/2001 11:01:54 PM
From: Bilow  Read Replies (1) of 93625
 
Hi Jdaasoc; Re: "If you are so sure its apples to oranges, give me a link refuting what Samsung claims in their press release." There is no Samsung press release stating that their 4i is going to be smaller than DDR, LOL!!!

I wouldn't doubt that they might put one out. Until that press release comes out (the article you're quoting appears garbled), I won't know exactly what is being compared. But Rambus fantasy land is populated with apples to oranges comparison, and I have no doubt that if such a press release is issued it will have this as a basis.

But lets look at the simple facts: DDR is a lot cheaper than RDRAM. Micron is offering unlimited amounts of DDR at the same price as their SDRAM. Toshiba closed a fab line that was producing (among other things) 128Mbit RDRAM. If there'd been massive demand for RDRAM at a profitable price in the foreseeable future, Toshiba would have left that line running. NEC is getting out of the making memory, and Samsung is said to be estimating their year end production at equal parts DDR and RDRAM.

You tell me. What's coming down the channel?

Here's the latest Samsung PR on this 256Mbit RDRAM and the 4i status. This is probably the press release that you were thinking of when you wrote your post. Notice that there is no mention of a size comparison between DDR and 4i:

Samsung Electronics Starts Mass-producing 0.15-micron 256Mb Rambusa DRAM
Press Release, Samsung web site, August 8, 2001
...
By starting up mass production of the 256Mb Rambus DRAM, Samsung has greatly improved productivity and the production cost structure. A 0.17-micron design rule 128Mb Rambus DRAM has a 23% handicap in chip size against a conventional Synchronous DRAM of the same density and design. But the 0.15-micron 256Mb Rambus DRAM has narrowed the gap to a mere 9% difference, greatly reducing production costs.
...
In addition to the Rambus DRAM, Samsung Electronics has advanced fabrication lines for both synchronous DRAMs and double-data-rate (DDR) DRAMs with a design rule of 0.15 microns or less.
...

samsung.com

Remember what Intel said about RDRAM recently, "The problem is the cost structure. The cost structure never met the goals we had." Just a few days ago, Samsung said that RDRAM was 4x the price of SDRAM. Okay, so they get the size penalty down from 23% to 3%. How much of that 4x price (not cost!) penalty is that going to remove? RDRAM is expensive for a boatload of reasons more than just the silicon area, and you damn well know most of them.

For one thing, note that your quote assumes that DDR has a price penalty to SDRAM. Who knows, maybe that's true at Samsung. Micron says it isn't true, and is selling their DDR for the same price as SDRAM, with unlimited amounts.

If RDRAM is going to be so cheap to make, why doesn't Samsung put out a press release saying that they're going to start selling their RDRAM (maybe the 4i version) at the same price as their SDRAM? That's what Micron did. And the same thing was done for SDRAM by Fujitsu (if I recall correctly) when SDRAM was starting out. Where's the press release from Samsung stating that they're converting all their production to RDRAM only?

Yeah, I know the usual flaming Rambus moron BS about how Micron can't sell their DDR, but the fact is that Micron publicly stated that they were going to do this long long before they actually did it.

Rambus is a great story stock, maybe you should buy some more.

-- Carl
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