A voice from the past............
To:Jim Woolly CB who wrote (102739)
From: jmanvegas
Friday, Aug 10, 2001 3:32 AM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 102764
JWCB, DH, & MM: How the hell are you guys? I have not posted in so long and rarely ever read the threads anymore, but I
mosied on over here tonite and lo & behold, it seems a lot of the old hands are still at it here on the QCOM thread. Seems like
old times again but under very different circumstances and economic times. There are a few old-timers here that probably hope I
go back and crawl under that rock again and never resurface. And I will! But I just wanted to say hello and wish everyone well,
good health, happiness, and financial success.
I read a few of the posts from the last few days from some of my favorite folks tonite. We've all been through the most amazing
economic times I've ever witnessed in my adult life the last 18 months or so. Here are just a few thoughts FWIW and then I'm
outta here.
1)Greenspan & the Fed are to blame, period, end of story. Those who think the sun shines and sets on AG are deluded. Those
who think he is the "Maestro" are also deluded. I've stated many times in the past that these octogenarian creatures at the Fed
are out to lunch. Over 2 decades ago, for those who don't recall or don't know, there was another so-called "Maestro" of the
Fed. His name was Volcker (I think I spelled his name incorrectly). He was another piece of work His legacy came to a crashing
end and the same is in store for AG. IMHO, not until AG leaves the Fed will there be another bull leg in the market. Oh, there
will be upward spikes but the bear will be with us longer than anyone thinks. One thing that still gnaws at me about AG is his
last testimony before the House. A lady Congresswoman chastised AG about raising and then lowering rates all within a
relatively short period of time and asked AG why and what was that all about. His reply was "that's what central bankers do."
And with an attitude and snideness like how dare you Congresswoman even ask me that question. I'll say it one more time - AG
should resign immediately - the markets would cheer.
2)We have witnessed the greatest crash in the history of mankind from a wealth depletion viewpoint. Is it 1929? Nope! Do we
have breadlines and 20% unemployment? Nope! Just plain old wealth destruction. Was it a bubble? Sure was. Will there be a
recovery? Nope. Just upward spikes in a bear market - great shorting opportunities when those spikes occur, especially for tech
stocks.
3)I believe there are opportunities to make money in the market from the long side. We're in the biotech revolution. Which
companies win in that space? I don't know but am holding positions in several interesting names whose fundamentals look quite
promising and technicals look good also. We'll see.
4)Other opportunities for long positions exist for micro & small caps - especially those companies whose market cap is under
$100M. You've got to ferret them out and do some real DD and have some cajones. But there are companies growing at
50%-100%/year with PE's under 15. Undiscovered by most of Wall Street, thank goodness, and undiscovered by your typical
investor over here on SI. Also thank goodness. I watch about 30 of them, have some nice positions in several and their charts
and technicals are stellar. These will outperform the universe of most stocks, IMO, for the next 3-5 years. And I believe some of
them could have "QCOM-like" potential returns over the next several years. But they're risky because of their size but size
doesn't matter is this market. Size only matters in porno films and those that have held on to large cap tech stocks got royally
screwed to say it mildly. Did anyone see John Chambers yesterday on any of his interviews? Look like he swallowed something
foul. Still thinks 30%-50% compounded growth is doable if the economy turns. In San Jose, I understand they smoke some
good sh*t up there. Chambers needs some. I saw McNeely from SUNW in an interview about 3 months ago. He sounded like he
lost his marbles and needed valium. As JWCB & MM have pointed out on this thread over the last couple of days, and from the
looks on the faces of some of these tech CEO's, things don't look pretty. But Wall Street will try to prop up these companies, will
try to tell you it's okay that CSCO may earn 10 cents this year, have a PE over 150, and it's time to get into the stock. The
whores of Wall Street never stop. Massive lay-offs "are a comin" to the Street, and deservedly so. It's like what comes around,
goes around and the Blodgets & Meekers and all the so-called "independent ANALysts", investment bankers, etc. on Whore
Street need to be cleansed out of the system to make it a fair game again.
5)Finally, we ain't seen anything yet regarding accounting issues and pro-forma bulls**t financial statements and write-offs of
goodwill (JDSU is just the tip of the iceberg). Can you imagine that 1 year later, due to more advanced technology from some
upstart private optical companies, SDLI's & ETEK's technology is now considered obsolete. WOW!!! Just how much obsolete stuff
is out there?
Lastly, because this is the QCOM thread I'll add my 2 cents FWIW regarding QCOM. I'm quite surprised to see QCOM holding up
so well in face of all of the above. Will I invest in QCOM because of its relative strength? Nope. That doesn't mean it won't go
higher from here. But I'm not going to pay a hefty multiple for a company who now barely beats the Street estimates by only a
penny each reporting quarter. Where's the strong sequential earnings growth? I know - it's coming but it's been coming for a
long time now. But obviously the company will survive, will be a player, and the promise and potential of 3G in 3-5 years is
what's propping up the stock price. But I wish the long-term holders of QCOM well and hope their boat comes in fully loaded
with riches. I just think there are greater investment returns in micro & small caps. As Milehigh (an old poster who doesn't post
anymore and who blames him) used to say: "Happy Hunting".
Again, to JWCB (I always, always enjoyed your posts), to DH (a no bulls**t straight-shooter who I will get to meet with
someday and have that beer by the beach in San Diego), to Marginmike (to whom I always respected your candor and opinions
and market timing), and to many others here whom I have agreed with, disagreed with, sparred with - you folks know who you
are - I truly wish you all the best. You folks take care - okay. Now it's time again to crawl back under that rock and hibernate for
another year or so. Good luck all.
jmanvegas |
