re: NTAP "in range"; buying QCOM:
If 10 is the bottom, 14 is "in range", compared to 50 (which looked like good support for a long time), or 100, or 150. Yes, at these prices, small changes in the stock price equal huge % changes, which is why it will be crucial for my longterm gains, to get in at the lowest possible cost basis. That is even more true for me, since I am gambling with LEAPs. I sold some more of my housing stocks today, so I've got lots of cash burning a hole in my pocket. What to do.......what to do........
QCOM looks to me like the 65-70 area is strong resistance. We've stalled there, over and over. I'm going into the earnings report with a large position in QCOM put LEAPs. Earnings, whether you use forward or past 12M EPS, are a bit over 1$. With the stock at 65, I think the PE is unsustainable, unless the rosiest future happens (out of several possible futures). Specifically, QCOM has to continue to get more big licensing agreements, and sales of 1X chips have to ramp rapidly. If that doesn't happen, or if that scenario just looks uncertain, QCOM revisits 50 real quick. Since the rosiest future is already in the stock, IMO, I don't expect any pop in the stock unless unexpected important new news comes out, and I consider that unlikely. Shortterm, there is little upside, and a lot of potential downside. Disclosure: I've been wrong more often than right, on shortterm QCOM moves.
At current prices, I like EMC best. Can the picture get any uglier for them (no growth, price war, no visibility.......)? After EMC, I like the communications chip companies, like TXN, ALTR, XLNX. |
