AUG 10 INDEX UPDATE
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Short-term technical readings:
DOW - midrange
SPX - lower midrange, imperfect HAMMER
OEX - lower midrange, imperfect HAMMER
NAZ - lower midrange/borderline oversold region, imperfect DRAGONFLY DOJI
NDX - lower midrange/borderline oversold region, imperfect DRAGONFLY DOJI
VIX - lower midrange(inverse to market)
NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs - negative 30
Yesterday I got borderline CLASS 1 BUYs and the overall market closed with DRAGONFLY DOJIs/DOJIs/SPINNING TOPs, and today I again got intraday CLASS 1 BUYs with DRAGONFLYS/HAMMERs.
Thats 2 days in row with CANDLESTIC reversal sticks. Its not a firm candlestic reversal pattern, but does give some positive hints for the short-term.
4 indices did produce LOWER LOWs this week, NAZ,NDX,BTK and the RUT(mentioned by pm to me). They did bounce back immediately and did not close at the intraday lows. I have a basis rule, that once a lower low is set, even if its only on a intraday basis, it is likely that those levels should be revisited.
As mentioned previously, I am not expecting a strong rally just a bounce to fulfill the effects of expiration week. The MAX-PAIN on the QQQs is around 42 so there may be a little upside pressure on the QQQs to get back around 42; it closed at 40.32. The MAX-PAIN on the OEX is at 615 and it closed at 611.4, so there should also be a little upside pressure. Im not talking about a strong rally, just enough for the big players to unwind their positions.
The NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs closed at negative 30. Per that bearish RISING WEDGE, the HI-LOs is near the lower trendline of that RISING WEDGE. I would consider it a strong negative if it breaks the WEDGE to the downside, since it would be a hint that the real selling may ONLY be starting. So the NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs need to improve real soon, almost immediately.
stockcharts.com
In both our website account and my personal mutual fund account I close my USPIX(short-NDX) positions, and since I had established an even hedge previously, I am now letting the UOPIX(long-NDX) ride naked. Once the NDX gets back to the midrange/upper-midrange I will start to establish small short-positions, unless I see significant positive hints. |
