Trader J's Inner Circle Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Trader J's Inner Circle

NVDA 199.04

+5.7%

3:59 PM EST

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To: ColleenB who wrote (45734)	8/10/2001 6:42:55 PM
From: Canuck Dave	Read Replies (3) of 56532

Thank you Colleen, but I've been a bear for 2 years now and mostly missed the run to Nasdaq 5000. I was in New Orleans in 1989 and things were pretty depressed there at that time. In 1989, houses in NO were selling for 75% of what they were a decade earlier. Real estate booms come and go, but ultimately rising prices have to be backed by some positive local economic factors. What scares me is the opposite is true today for a sizeable percentage of Americans. They're maintaining consumption patterns with home equity. The US consumer is about tapped out, and no amount of interest rate cuts will change that. Whether you're paying 19% or 14% on a credit card debt, if you don't have a job, you can't pay it. You also can't put more money into mutual funds or the stock market. The PE of the Nasdaq is negative, and that of the S&P 500 is 25.6, twice historical norms. All these pressures have to break one day, IMO. The party is OVER. Of course, I could be wrong. CD

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