Bobby, looking at the MSFT chart, a mild bullish bounce case could be made for MSFT as it appears to have touched and bounced off a rising SRL originating from the March 21 low around $50.
With the VXN at 48.52, we are quite a ways away from the extreme April readings in the high 70's. Yesterday's 48.15 was the 2nd lowest since July 3, August 1st being slightly lower.
This tells me that the bounce will be short lived, as these low VXN readings are normally associated with the upper limits of a move.
I agree we are not extremely oversold as in March and April. Luc may be correct in sentiment, but I don't think it counts. Luc has been bearish forever. If you flip a coin enough times, you're bound to call it correct sooner or later.
Bobby, I've seen several of the e-wave charts showing an explosive rally to anywhere from 2500 to 3000.. The problem I have with many of those is that there seems to be no correlation with Fib re-tracements and historical patterns. A rally in late August in the middle of a ferocious bear is not something we normally see.
I believe this rally will be artificially induced by the MM's for Max Pain, and as soon as it gets above the level of comfort (2020-2050), it will suddenly lose legs.
We may muddy around because of the Fed meeting on the 21st, and remember we've seen recently that the first 3-days after a Fed cut are normally contrary to the trend, so if we're up after the Fed cut, watch out below.
Sorry I don't have a chart to post, as my laptop memory is saying no-mas. |
