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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 228.68+1.2%3:59 PM EST
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To: scott_jiminez who wrote (50413)8/11/2001 3:06:22 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (2) of 70976
 
Scott, I thought was the one "English Challenged"<g>, but from your response it seems you failed to grasp what I was saying. While there are always differences between cycles, there are always some great similarities. Go to the period 1966/1982, a full 16 ears in which the Dow was locked in the 500 to 1000 range. The similarity, could be another lengthy multiyear period where the Dow and the Naz are locked within a broad range. A disimilarity is that the 1966/82 period did not have world wide deflationary pressures and now we have some serious over supply in capacity in various sectors. Another disimilarity is that the US economy was much more insulated from the world economy. Yet another disimilarity is that we are coming out of a major "Naz bubble", but a similarity is the "nifty 50" of the early 70' and the nifty Naz big caps of the recent period. Many of the bear periods in the 1966/82 stretch were not even associated with actual economic recessions. The current bear market, IMHO, will be viewed upon as one bear market not associated with an economic recession as well (we are having a well engineered "soft landing"), that implies, however that a future bear market (hopefully from prices much higher than today on the naz) will be associated with real recessions.

Zeev
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