Limtex, I think we have gone through most of the required correction. The Naz has shed 500 issues (more than 10% of the listed stock on the Nasdaq have been delisted since the beginning of the year), and that means, if and when money sitting on the side line (some of the big MZM money) finally collects enough courage to get back into the market, there will be fewer issues competing for these funds. Furthermore, the rate at which the street is soaking money (through IPO's) has declined markedly as well. Last, as I was suggesting since the beginning of the current malaise, it is not one associated with a real recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth), but more with excess capacity and inventory excesses. Inventories have come down quite a lot, but excess capacity in many segments is still there and will "cloud" the next mini recovery. I expect the current malaise to be mostly over by mid to late October (which is in sync with the scenario I painted last year) and expect a nice market for some 9 months (from the next nadir), maybe a little longer. No, I do not expect the Naz to make a new high in the next bull move, but I can see by this time next year the Naz challenging the 3800/4200 area. The Dow, could even make a new high in that period. After that, I expect the market to "anticipate" a real 2003 recession (consumer led) with another sharp bear market.
Zeev |
