Slider, regarding gold, I don't own any. If I thought there were a major change in demand for gold, I would probably consider buying a gold mining stock, such as Newmont.
Regarding the need for short term trades in oil and related stocks, I appreciate your arguments, which make sense provided that one can really identify the points at which commodity prices, for example, are changing direction or accelerating. Buffett-style long term investments, however, are not necessarily out of place in the oil patch. Part of Buffett's genius is in finding good managers. With skilled management, one doesn't need to worry about short term trends. Management will be able to handle those changes effectively. A key part of long term investing is to find good management quality and stay with it.
Even when oil prices have been weak, companies with good quality reserves that can bring in profits even with low prices are worth holding. For several years, for example, Amoco had some of the best quality oil and gas reserves in North America. There was no need to trade the shares, as the company was able to do quite well, year after year. Exxon had other strengths, though it was never as well managed as Amoco, in my opinion at least. I used to hold shares in both companies.
It's a matter of priorities. Some investors will place more emphasis on price trends and their impacts on specific companies. Other investors give higher priority to quality of management on the assumption that good managers can anticipate changes in price trends and react accordingly--much faster than outside investors.
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