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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU)
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To: minorejoy2000 who wrote (21197)8/11/2001 7:03:47 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (1) of 24042
 
I just read a Merrill Lynch research article on the optical components market.

There were 4 key variables discussed in the article:

1. The magnitude of the excess inventory of optical components in $billions;

2. The rate at which the optical inventory becomes obsolete in months;

3. The current percentage of optical components in systems and the estimated growth of this percentage; and

4. The growth rate of optical systems.

From these variables and a forecast of JDSU's market share, ML creates scenarios based on a sensitivity analysis of obsolescent rates and rates of growth of the percentage of optical components in systems.
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