Slowing deployment holding back US subscribers
Error in our previous numbers
A smart observer just proved to us our availability numbers for the telcos are significantly distorted. We have been working from telco figures like this one from Verizon:
"48M lines are passed by DSL (i.e., come out of C.O.s that have been equipped), out of a total of a little less than 63M lines. Of the 48M, about 62% are loop qualified, which means about 29.8M Verizon lines can get DSL from Verizon."
We calculated that meant 47% of Verizon customers could get DSL. SBC's similar number is 55%. We now realize we were mistaken, because DSL deployments are concentrated in the larger cities, where businesses (which have many lines) are typically closer and more likely to be served. This means the actual percentage of subscribers eligible is actually lower, and we hope the telcos will help us get more accurate figures. (Bell Canada is over 70%, BellSouth 60%, Qwest far behind even after the new DLC rollout).
Either number is far less than planned, despite Whitacre and Salerno both asserting the spending cutbacks were not affecting "growth initiatives." SBC was supposed to be over 80% with Pronto in 17 months (universal soon after), while GTE/Verizon West expected to be ahead of them. Our guess is that 20-40% of the shortfall in DSL subscribers is due to folks who should have been already reached. |
