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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU)
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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (21199)8/12/2001 12:33:00 PM
From: semi_infinite   Read Replies (2) of 24042
 
I assume you are talking about the Astle analysis. I like his stuff better than others at ML. ML's analysis (not done by Astle) of fiber capacity is over simplified. I am not sure if I buy his 15 month assumption for average time to obsolescence for components. First of all, I don't know how one can go about taking an average for active and passive components. My guess is that the passive components have a much longer shelf life compared to active components. What if the shelf life of JDS" inventory is only 6 months as claimed by one of the VP's at JDSU. In the short reach sector, 1 Gbps vcsel ethernet parts are no longer selling after only being on the market for 24 months. It's either 2.5 or 10 Gbps now or you are out of luck. In general, Astle's piece is thought provoking and I would like to be convinced of his assumptions. Moreover, I would like to see proof that those two sensitivities are the most important ones to model when there are other seemingly important variables like demand growth of lack of.
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