Sharon's Policies Now Threatening World Peace
Egypt Threatens Show Of Armed Force To Aid Arafat
By Uzi Mahnaimi in Tel Aviv
The Sunday Times - London
8-12-1
The threat of a wider Middle East conflict is growing as the Egyptian government considers sending its 3rd Armoured Army into the Sinai peninsula if Israel moves into Palestinian territories.
In recent weeks Egypt has come under increased pressure from the Palestinians to help them. The Sinai option was confirmed by a senior Egyptian security source, who said the Israelis had to be deterred from "destroying" the Palestinian Authority and Yasser Arafat, its leader.
Under the terms of a 1979 peace agreement, Israel withdrew from the Sinai, which it had conquered in the six day war of 1967, while Egypt agreed not to keep substantial military forces there.
Palestinian sources said that last month Arafat reminded Egypt's president, Hosni Mubarak, that the country had other obligations: as a signatory of the Arab League's defence treaty, it had a duty to give military support to any fellow member coming under attack.
Arafat, the sources said, urged Mubarak to implement the treaty. Mubarak has so far taken no action, but has said that as long as Ariel Sharon is prime minister of Israel, there will be no peace in the region.
Israeli security sources say the possibility of Mubarak's intervention is now being factored into military planning. Any incursion into the Sinai would be viewed as a violation of the peace accord. Israel would send a substantial force to defend its southern border, raising the prospect of the first confrontation with Egypt since 1973.
Any encounter now would be no pushover for the Israelis. The Egyptian army has improved dramatically in the past 30 years, and is one of the most modern in the world. Its hardware is advanced and almost entirely American; its air force is well maintained and its navy bigger than Israel's, and stronger.
Israel's northern border is no less tense. Mubarak's special adviser, Osama al-Baz, said last month that if Israel attacked Syria, the Syrians would not be alone.
Israeli military intelligence warned in a recent report to the government that confrontation could follow on all borders if relations with the Palestinians deteriorated sharply.
With the anniversary of the Palestinian uprising approaching, Sheikh Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, the extreme Iranian-backed Islamic group, has promised full military support to the Palestinians.
Intense Hezbollah preparations observed by Israeli intelligence over the past week have increased speculation about the group's intentions. It has built 20 to 30 outposts along the border between Lebanon and Israel. Iranian army units are keeping long-range rockets on standby in southern Lebanon, capable of striking northern parts of Israel.
The Israeli military also has to take another foe into consideration: Saddam Hussein's Iraq. Iraqi forces have advanced a tank division from a Republican Guard barracks near Baghdad towards the Jordanian border at least twice since the beginning of the intifada.
Senior officers say an Iraqi expeditionary army arriving on the Jordanian border would be a casus belli for Israel, although they hope allied air strikes would deter any such move. "We are sure they would be tackled by the Americans," said one officer.
On Friday, American and British aircraft bombed three sites in southern Iraq, the largest allied strike since February. Altogether, 20 ground-attack fighters were involved, backed up by 30 support aircraft, according to the Pentagon.
The official Iraqi News Agency said one person was killed and 11 were wounded.
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