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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility

AAPL 268.55

+0.4%

Nov 19 3:59 PM EST

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To: DebtBomb who wrote (10497)	8/12/2001 2:37:55 PM
From: ChrisJP	Read Replies (2) of 208838

Hi Dale, Nasdaq closed red 6 days in a row .... Is that like saying that a roulette wheel that has come up red 6 times in a row is "overdue" to come up black ? <g> Since the NASDAQ is 100 points below its 50 dEMA, sure it could bounce a little, and sure there is always a story every day which affects a stock or a sector up or down. It took a while, but after the last set earnings reports and forward guidance, people have finally come to realize that they've been out-and-out lied to or at best put their life savings into the hands of people who were, AS A GROUP, incompetent or clueless or both. Even if there's a bargain staring them in the face, people are reluctant to put their money in after that kind of experience. Very similar to the psychology of stock market avoidance in the 1930 and 1970s. Also -- the markets are starting to think that consumer spending and housing which has been holding up the stock market so far, may finally weaken like everything else. The first hint is that sales are still strong but only because of strong discounting. If that dries up .... yikes !!! When the rate cuts started in January ... I can't even begin to count how many times someone CNBC said something like "9 out of 10 times the S&P has rallied 6 months after the first rate cut" or some other statistic that completely ignored so many other facts special to the Oct 1998 - March 200 bubble. They repeated it so many times that it started to make me sick. Like someone was forcing Ron Insana and Sue H. to say it at least once per hour. Now CNBC acts like they never said that, lol. Am I in a good mood or what ? lolol Chris

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