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Strategies & Market Trends : MP - Market Pulse

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To: ajtj99 who wrote (1219)	8/12/2001 4:54:11 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) of 1328

Max Pain analysis Eyeball method on QQQ suggests we close somewhere between 40 and 42 and if I had to pick I would suggest smack on 41. If we close under 40, it could get very very ugly so I doubt that. Software is hugely oversold and my favorite long play here is SEBL. Stochastics very oversold, downgrades are in, stock well below pain. If forced to guess we could see a rally to 32 1/2. A close under 25 does not seem likely. If for some reason we have a huge rally(which I doubt) then 37 would be my target. If we rally into expiry and keep going then 37 would be my target. ORCL is also 2 1/2 points below pain. Of the two I prefer SEBL by a long shot. CSCO max pain I could not figure out with eyeball method precicely (somewhere between 17.5 and 20 but closer to 17.5). All this suggests to me that they got most stocks where they wanted a bit earlier than ususal. MSFT pain is smack on 65. I do not see much here either way. INTC pain is right on 30, again I would not expect much of a move here either way. AMAT is right on pain so again nothing much is expected. AMAT is also not heavily optioned so bad earnings could send chips tumbling. On that last thought perhaps we have a decent rally for a 1 1/2 days or two so we can drop chips on a bad AMAT report with ease. Normally I trust my my eyeball method better than IQauto but I wanted to see what the official number was on CSCO (theirs was 17 1/2). I found it interesting that QQQ and SEBL were the most requested requests for max pain analysis today. On a historic basis SEBL is about 10th. AMAT was #5 so people are interested in that when they normally would not be. AMD (cult following) is the most requested of all times and is always hign on the list. Max pain to my eye was about 22.5 on BEAS but is listed at 25. That is as far out of wack as SEBL. On BEAS alone I would not make much of it but if software rallies a bit SEBL BEAS ORCL would be the plays. VRTS max pain by my eyeball is about 40 so I would not expect much on that one. So... If we rally I would expect software to lead the way (but not really MSFT). Top on QQQ would be about 42, but if we blew past that then 44-45 with ease. Max pain suggets a mini-rally overall with a bigger rally in software. I believe we head back down after this relief rally (possibly as early as WED AM on bad news from AMAT). M

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