Ken, u make some good points. While I agree with many of your points,
we also have to invest in relative market place. For e.g. You were
correctely bearsih in Fall of 99 based on FA and past experience but sunw did not top
out till aug 2000. While most tech stocks topped out lets say in March or so.
March 2000 was a real sad affair for the market when bio-techs and internets were
going up for no reason and new economy was NOT going to be hurt w. higher rates etc.
I felt riding on csco, sunw etc I was atleast in invest-able companies. Many Gurus
had left market at dow 5k, 6k as market continued to climb. If you remeber there
were times where you were punished if you invested in any thing that was NOT tech.
Yes I bot pfe at 27-30 and could not figure out what I was doing wrong.
For those of us hodling sunw at forward pe of 18-20, 100 is a large number.
Having bot csco at trailing pe of 25 to see it at 200 was much more then i
could handle. But I thought csco was high at 100pe and went on to pe of 200.
Since sunw/csco were getting over weighted in my portfolio, I built collars around those two.
My biggest positon right now is QQQ. Buiding collars gave me a lot bigger return
then bond market would do which is what I would have done w. the mony. I have been
buying maximum I-bond for the family. Other then that I do not know what else to
do. BUT I JUST CAN NOT PASS UP SUNW AT THIS VALUE HOW EVER WRONG I AM ...
TODAY TOMORROW AND NEXT WEEK. see table below :
Csco and Emc carried price to sales of 15-20 while sunw p/s much lower like 6?
Msft today carries PS of 14.4. Ok yes msft sitting on lot of cash and is a sw company
so could be deserving to slightly higher ps.
P/s for big techs stocks. I am not including jnpr , cien etc. As they are not "big"
Today msft 14.4 orcl 8.19 csco 6.14, intc 6.18 emc 4.18 and sunw 3.01,dell 2.17
ibm 2.09. wcom 1.78, , cpq .64,
txn 5.7 amat 3.69 ($5/share cash)
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Following table is derived from currnet zack's estimates. aug. 12, 2001
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sym ..peg Indsty Sector S&P 500
sunw 1.53 9.41 4.57 1.81 ........
ibm 1.77 9.41 4.57 1.81
csco 2.29 9.41 4.57 1.81
emc 2.30 9.41 4.57 1.81
intc 3.26 9.41 4.57 1.81
msft 2.11 2.07 4.57 1.81
dell 1.82 9.41 4.57 1.81
amat 3.42 9.41 4.57 1.81
KO 2.12 1.82 1.81 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< i show u an example of tech is NOT over valued.
jnj 2.25 2.04 1.94 1.81
utx 1.20 1.32 4.57 1.81 |
