fpembleton,
Of PM intetest, from Kitco, comments welcome:
Date: Mon Aug 13 2001 10:33
ellix98 (Due to the widespread acclaim and discussion that this post provoked yesterday (i.e. nada ) ID#221184:
Copyright © 2000 ellix98/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
zero ) , perhaps now?
Historically, when the Russians have wanted to sell some gold, they have looked to manipulate silver up.
Excerpt from "The Silver Mania", by W. J. Streeter:
". . . The Russians are among the best game players on the economic scene. When the Russians start covertly buying silver in Zurich, their Swiss brokers know very well what is going on. For relatively minor sums they can influence the international silver market. . . The price of silver moves up in response to the increased buying and expectation of further rises which again increases buying. The upward movement in silver price also pushes up gold price because of the infamous **sensitivity of the gold/silver ratio**. Silver is easy to manipulate . . . and the carryover effect on gold price is of substantially greater magnitude even though the percentage may be less. . . using this kind of leverage, the Russians quietly enter the silver market as a buyer, [silver pulls up gold price] then a few days later start selling gold."
Interesting, no? What if certain "people" want to drive the price of gold down? Why not take a cue from the Russians and turn the strategy on its head: sell silver to depress gold. Takes less money and is very effective. How many times have we seen pundits, not to mention a host of the barely financially literate on this forum ( i.e. those nattering nabobs who seek to validate themselves with vacuous observations on the silver market ) proudly "expounding", among other things, on the lack of follow up in silver prices as compelling reason to look at any "uptick" in gold as an aberration? Look at the performance of silver during the Au price spike this past Thursday and Friday. Does it not give one pause for thought when you consider the old Russian ploy?
Remember that you heard it here, well, second.
Date: Sun Aug 12 2001 11:18
strat ( Silver outlook ) ID#297233:
Silver, as a long-term investment, will fare less well, says Gotthelf. Though he expects silver to retain potential in electronics, its use in photography – which accounts for 40% of output – is threatened by the dawn of digital imaging. Gotthelf suggests falling silver prices could one day cause a return of silver coinage to absorb excess quantities and keep prices stable.
This luminary Gotthelf is making the same mistake as the brilliant "Fact". They do not realise that only 27% of photographic demand is consumed, the balance is recycled. The maximum possible impact on silver usage i.e. consumption, assuming 100% substitution by digital photography is 27% X 40% = 10.8% of total output, taking as accurate his 40% of output figure, which seems high, seems that the silver institute quotes 26%: silverinstitute.org ( try 27% X 26%, the answer is 7% )
I do not think that digital is going to impact silver prices, significantly, in any time frame. As photographic silver declines, other uses shall rise and compensate. Note that Japan is giving up entirely on lead based solder very shortly. They will be using silver as a substitute, if I recall well, at about a .5% inclusion rate in the mix. No, .5% is not very much but this makes recycling less of an attractive proposition and may well impact silver "consumption" more than had they opted to use a higher percentage in the solder mix. |
