Sepracor-Looks very promising Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising

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To: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL who wrote (5009)	8/13/2001 11:25:09 PM
From: rkrw	Read Replies (2) of 10280

I found it interesting to look at sepr's presentation and the various graphs of xopenex sales. Slide 5 on the Q2 cc shows a graph of market share and total scrips over the past 2 years. www.sepracor.com ; investors; multimedia Just eyeballing their scrip/mkt share chart, it appears that real sales in the q2 were well below q1, as each of April, May and June appear to be below Jan, Feb and March. So the graph doesn't mesh with the up quarter unless stocking (as you pointed out) or their avg scrip $ is much higher. Slide 3 shows the nebule mkt up 13% YTD, measured by trx. Sepr is in the nice position of gaining mkt share in a growing mkt. My personal sales est: Q3: $22M Q4: $40M FY: $120M Strong 2002 growth is essentially assured. Barberich has stated their goal is to gain 4 mkt share pts each peak quarter, so they should be firmly above 20% by the end of Q1 02. By carrying mkt share gains forward in a growing mkt, sales growth is built in. I don't agree with some other posters about a big impact from the pediatric label. Medicare would be the biggie and is much more significant than a label expansion for a mkt they already sell significant scrips to. In response to Ed, using cash to buy back shares is quite a request in the face of a large burn rate, a huge sales and marketing ramp up next year, multiple phase III trials, the flexibility a strong cash position provides, a cloudy fda environment where delays are becoming the norm as well as possible inlicensing or jv opportunities.

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