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Non-Tech : Any info about Iomega (IOM)?
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To: isdsms who wrote (4140)7/6/1996 10:48:00 PM
From: Fernando J. Pineda   of 58324
 
AN ANALYSIS OF IOMEGA SALES FY95Q1 through FY96Q2

To: all

I posted my latest zip sales analysis in the "any earnings
estimates" thread. It is rather long so I didn't put it in the main
thread. For those of you who are not familiar with my previous posts,
my approach is to use all publically available statements by IOMEGA to
build a consistent historical picture of the ZIP business, I then use
the solution of the calculation to gain insight into the company and
to project future results. Here's my unit-sales and dollar-sales
results for zip drives and zip disks.

Table 4. Historical (95Q1-96Q1) & Projected (96Q2-96Q4)
QUARTERLY SALES

zips/Qtr disks/Qtr Total/Qtr
(M) ($M) (M) ($M) ($M)

FY 95
Q1 0.015 02.17 00.11 01.14 03.31
Q2 0.090 13.05 00.79 08.24 21.29
Q3 0.200 29.04 01.84 19.13 48.17
Q4 0.350 50.70 03.33 34.69 85.39
FY96
Q1 0.655 094.96 06.29 065.52 160.48
Q2 1.130 163.88 11.07 115.22 279.10
Q3 1.730 250.84 17.42 181.39 432.23
Q4 2.355 341.47 24.53 255.43 596.90
FY97
Q1 2.985 432.82 032.17 334.97 0767.78
Q2 3.615 524.17 040.24 418.95 0943.11
Q3 4.245 615.51 048.71 507.13 1122.65
Q4 4.875 706.86 057.55 599.20 1306.06

Note that zip sales alone for FY96 are projected to be $1.5B
(assuming 5.8m disks sold in FY96. (They would have to slow production
to sell just 5M disks in 1996). I also deduce that Iomega probably makes
$145/drive and $10.4/disk.

Please read the full post before commenting on these numbers.

Special thanks to Ken, Guy, Daven (and others) for info & insight.

-- Fernando
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