Panel says 80-mpg sedan not likely by 2004
August 13, 2001 9:51:00 PM ET
(Updates throughout with details from report, quotes, reaction)
By Justin Hyde
DETROIT, Aug 14 (Reuters) - A multibillion-dollar research program between automakers and the U.S. government will not meet its goal of developing affordable family sedans that get 80 miles per gallon by 2004, a federal review said on Monday.
The annual review of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV) also says the program needs a new set of goals to tackle rising U.S. demand for fuel, the popularity of gas-guzzling trucks and stricter controls on air pollution from vehicles.
With the goal of an 80-mpg car out of reach for now, automakers, environmentalists and the Bush administration all agree on the need for a new direction for the program.
But there's no consensus on what that direction should be.
"PNGV has been in need of a major overhaul for years," said Jason Mark, transportation analyst with the Union of Concerned Scientists, an environmental group.
The program was started in 1993 with a goal of building four-door cars with triple the fuel economy and no penalty in cost or safety, a target that then-President Bill Clinton compared to putting a man on the moon.
Since then, the federal government has provided about $1.4 billion under the program, for basic research into materials, fuels and engines. Detroit's Big Three -- General Motors Corp., (GM) Ford Motor Co. (F) and the Chrysler side of DaimlerChrysler AG (DCX) -- have spent about $2.7 billion over the past three years on their fuel efficiency work.
The most visible effort of that research has been the three concept cars the automakers unveiled last year powered by "hybrid" diesel-electric engines that achieved 70 mpg to 90 mpg and met many of the program's goals for safety and size.
But all three automakers said if the concepts were put into production, they would cost several thousand dollars more than similar models today. All three have since committed to building hybrid gasoline-electric trucks and sport utility vehicles in small numbers by 2004 with 20 percent to 40 percent improvements in fuel economy.
The review by the National Research Council said the cost hurdles were insurmountable in the near future.
"It seems clear now that an affordable midsize sedan with three times the fuel economy of its 1994 counterpart cannot be a part of the foreseeable product marketing programs of any of the manufacturers at the present time," the report said.
And since 1993, the average fuel economy of all new vehicles sold in the United States has declined steadily, hitting 24.7 mpg last year. The number of cars on the highway has increased 17 percent, the number of miles traveled has increased 18 percent and petroleum used in highway travel has increased 20 percent, according to government statistics.
The Bush Administration said earlier this year it was cutting the budget for PNGV by about $40 million to $100 million. Half of the cut has been restored by Congress, which is still debating a final bill.
Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said the program should explore improving a wider variety of vehicles, especially gas-thirsty SUVs and pickup trucks.
Bob Culver, executive director of the automakers' joint research panel, said new goals were being considered for PNGV that would provide a clear target for the public and researchers.
"It's extremely difficult to set objectives for a research program...and still show the promise of what it's going to deliver to the customers," he said.
Culver also said the program's next targets may be set in terms of consumption -- billions of gallons of gasoline saved, for example -- rather than in terms of fuel efficiency. He said automakers hoped to have the new goals set by the end of the year.
But Mark said such consumption goals could give automakers a break, allowing them to avoid costly changes in SUVs and trucks.
"The smarter approach would be to do a percent increase, so that whether its a car or truck, you're trying to double or triple fuel efficiency," he said.
Mark also said the program should set goals for improving emissions as well, and steer away from diesel engines. REUTERS
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