Mish,
Appreciate your thoughts and views. I like the way you think and that you play the market long and short.
"IF (very big IF) we rally on WED and THU then perhaps I am convinced."
This in particular touches something I have been pondering lately as far as why most of the threads (long-time favorites and I still like to read them so please don't take my comment as overly critical) I enjoy tend to be behind the curve. Keying off of trendlines, using candlesticks (so much meaning in those different candles!), and now following volume peaks and duration of periods between highs and lows, I'm finding that I'm catching or even anticipating the turns as they occur. I'm finding that many good market watchers wait until the move is well underway before they realize that a turn really has occurred. Unfortunately, in this current
non-trending market condition, by the time the trader has decided the move is "real", much of the move has gone by and they are being set-up for the whip-saw effect. In other words, they seem to get bullish and bearish right when it's actually time to begin anticipating the turn back in the other direction! No wonder so many are exasperated and frustrated.
Just based on current tendency and not at the moment considering the possibility of a break of the daily downtrend line....if you are waiting for today and Wednes for "the tell", I think should the current pattern continue, it will be time to be "thinking" about bagging profits from the upmove to that point, and considering shorting or standing aside if one doesn't short.
I agree and realize it is so hard to put one's faith in a doji candle touching a trendline while of course all the indicators look as bad as they can at that point. Or thinking that after 5-6 consecutive days of lower lows and highs that perhaps enough is enough. As price hasn't begun to turn up yet, and one is looking for "proof" that a move is real....the result I would expect is that most of the more conservative traders will be getting bearish at the bottoms and bullish at the tops. A very difficult way to make money, IMO.
Anyway, enough musings for the moment, glad to see you posting here.
Best,
Eichler |
