Your graph actually shows a symmetric triangle, not descending one. Descending triangle is the one with horizontal lower line.
If you connect lows around 1934, 1937, you have a horizontal line which is less perfect than the nicely fit upper line, but close.
So we have two possible pictures: one is the symmetric triangle you mentioned, the other is the descending triangle I described. Both of them favor downward break-through because symmetric triangle tends to follow the previous trend, and descending triangle favors down.
The difference is the implied downward distance. Symmetric one implies much lower (almost 1400!) than the descending one (around 1750).
I think the descending triangle is a more valid picture for two reasons: 1. the lower line of symmetric one is drawn with only 2 points. 2. Can we go to 1400? not likely.
If I want to venture an opinion, I say we will make a low around 1750, thus complete a double bottom formation (in conjunction with 1619 low).
Of course, it could breakout upward, which is very rare for a descending triangle, less so for a symmetric one. In which case, the symmetric triangle predicts one hell of a rally ...
Either way, we shall see very soon as we are getting closer and closer toward the apex. |
