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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 659.00

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Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: Jurgen who wrote (81394)	8/14/2001 6:20:40 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) of 99985

I have noticed even bearish analysts/strategists seem to suggest that the April lows will not be retested. That is a reason for concern. Certainly not like old times when these same guys would insist that a retest was necessary (1997 to 1999 time period) before moving higher (of course those did not happen). The lack of calls expecting retests is definitely a reason for concern at the present time. On the other hand, the biggest cap techs on the Nasdaq should have a strong year end...Intel and Microsoft--imho. Today, IBM has started abandoning the AMD chips; I am expecting a lot more of this heading into Windows XP launch. That means the second largest cap Nasdaq stock may have some room to move higher in the final months of the year---becomes a timing issue. Both of these can be influential. Good reason to take the rest of the summer off. Too much uncertainty. btw--a important factor to watch will still be how low the FED goes---making it harder to justify holding money market investments; could be a factor at some point.

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