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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: Ilaine who wrote (7148)8/15/2001 6:19:21 AM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
CB, in 1995 [I think it was then] the yen got to 80 to the dollar. The central bankers warned everyone that it was intolerably high and then they smashed everyone. Not long later, the dollar was back over 100. Okay, maybe it'll drop somewhat. No worries [in fact, I have been betting on that for 15 months now and I have been getting very impatient]. Today it slid some more [compared with the NZ$, which is the currency I'm backing with cash].

Do you remember in the 1980s [I think about 1986] and there were parity parties being planned for when one pound matched one dollar? I think it made it to about $1.15 to the pound before changing direction. Maybe I'm out a few years on the date.

I guess there will be about a 20% general decline in the US$. I had wanted to borrow a fortune in yen, swap it for US$ at 80 yen to the dollar, and put it all on Microsoft. But I couldn't then find a source of yen, so missed out on a [little] fortune [which I had to get by investing in QUALCOMM, which was even better].

I think we can expect the same sort of currency moves. I doubt that they will be especially disruptive. Those who are positioned well will do well. But I would not bet against the USA technological and globalisation revolution, just the currency to a 30% extent. The US$ declining will not cause a USA recession. USA companies will do well from it, as people in the USA get a pay cut in international terms and their international sales increase in US$ terms.

Mqurice
Dow 16,000 Feb 2002 [though I agree we are running out of time].
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