(LVLT) - Level 3 Communications Message Board

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Technology Stocks : (LVLT) - Level 3 Communications

LVLT 53.63

0.0%

Nov 1 5:00 PM EST

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To: Raymond Duray who wrote (3051)	8/15/2001 9:03:46 AM
From: Freedom Fighter	Read Replies (1) of 3873

Ray, >>>Your's is a most astute view of the Kiewit game. I'm curious though.... Are you imagining that Walter and Jim have actually solved the issue of declining profitability in a market where unit prices are inexorably eroding, or have they merely parlayed this mesmerization of the market into some kickass homesteads down at Desert Highlands?<<< I didn't say the company was without problems. :-) I think there are too many players in the game right now. However, I don't see that as a refutation of LVLT's overall business plan and model. I see that as part of the typical boom bust cycle that comes from greed on Wall St, greed from investors, easy money from the Fed, etc… Granted, the boom and this "in progress" bust is a whopper. But I think the key is simply to get to the other side. Busts are the corrective phase where the weakest assets are removed, little or no new investment takes place, etc… That brings the market and more importantly Return on Capital back to a level that makes economic sense. If you make to the end game, you make it. I think LVLT has 2 solid years left at a minimum (plus some sellable assets that can extend that) to ride out the storm and prove the model. (which I still believe is superior) The company need only demonstrate that it WILL survive and more capital will be available. The current stock price suggests that my scenario is a big long shot. I think it is more probable than not. As far as long term bandwidth usage goes, I believe the growth will be enormous. The industry needs to get to that leveling point where ROC is adequate. I see that as inevitable - though of course I can't put an exact date on it. Wayne

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