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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: chowder who wrote (3600)8/15/2001 9:34:34 AM
From: Meridian  Read Replies (2) of 206307
 
Dabum, it's been my experience that in cyclical industries the market discounts poor earnings by 6-9 months. Buy when things look bad, as long as there's the prospect of superior intermediate term fundamentals. Which I think you and I both agree with. The temptation is to try to get too cute in your timing ... mine too. But when things look bad, the stock prices stop moving in lockstep with fundamentals. Stocks may trade sideways with squiggles here and there, while fundamentals deteriorate. When fundamentals come back - at the first whiff that things may improve - these stocks will have moved 20%-30%. It's really all a matter of styles though. I like to buy big positions and sit on them, and if they go down I buy more. As long as the fundamentals look sound. It works for me. Others, most on the board I would argue, like to employ a variation of daytrading - trying to call each squiggle correctly. In doing so they run the risk of having to be right too often, and more importantly, in missing the biggest moves (which are often the hardest to predict). I only have to be right once ... I know they'll move. I just don't quite know when, and I'm not going to delude myself into thinking that I'm smarter than I actually am.
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