World Production Value of Large TFT-LCDs to Plunge 17 Pct. in 2001
August 15, 2001 (TOKYO) -- The worldwide production volume of large TFT-LCD modules has been brisk, but its value is declining from the previous year.
According to a survey conducted by Nikkei Market Access, the production value dropped remarkably following the first quarter of 2001, by 24 percent from the same period of the previous year to US$2,570 million in the second quarter. In the third quarter, it is expected to decline by 19 percent from the same period the previous year to US$2,851 million. The total production value for 2001 is estimated to fall by 17 percent from the previous year to US$11 billion. This 17-percent drop is the worst in five years.
Production Value Falls to the Level of Two Years Ago
The decrease in production value in spite of the increase in production volume is due to significantly lower unit prices. Prices for almost all sizes of large TFT-LCD modules for notebook PCs and liquid-crystal monitors have fallen to almost half of the amount from the previous year.
The production value is not rising because of the remarkable drops in the prices. It is about the same level recorded two years ago in the second quarter of 1999, while the production volume of large TFT-LCD modules hit a record high in the second quarter of 2001. TFT-LCD manufacturers still will be facing an uphill battle, because the size of the screen will be larger.
But the price declines are beginning to stop. If the prices remain flat and the production volume increases, the production value should recover to the level in 2000. The key, however, is good performance in the U.S. market. The production of LCD monitors may turn out to be a two-fold increase over the same period of the previous year to 14 million units, if it keeps on growing at the current pace.
The widespread proliferation of LCD monitors in the U.S. market is critical. The production of TFT-LCD modules for notebook PCs is more dependent on the U.S. market. PC manufacturers are making production plans based on the prospects of strong demand in the fourth quarter. TFT-LCD makers also have to follow the same expectation. An overly high degree of dependence on the U.S. market and delayed recovery of the U.S. economy may flatten or even lower the production volume in the forth quarter from the previous quarter.
(Ken Nakamura, Nikkei Market Access) |
