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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 233.95

+0.3%

Dec 1 3:59 PM EST

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To: Oeconomicus who wrote (130144)	8/16/2001 9:50:01 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) of 164684

>> Depression, eh? OK. Whatever. << just ask anyone who is long cien or brcd this morning! i bet they are in a depression! >> By your PE criteria, you would have missed everything since 1983 << i never said you had to sell once it crossed back above 10. but when you are in a bear market it's a good way to force yourself to buy when no one else is interested. my criteria would have gotten you in before the start of the bull market. >> Besides, one should not value emerging growth on PEs, except, perhaps, for stage 2 of a 2-stage growth model. << you keep talking about growth companies as if it's a given. you can't even fathom an environment where nothing (including the economy) grows. that's why i guess you're going to be a sucker like everyone else and get hurt as you keep buying. >> BTW, the S&P peaked in Dec '72 at 120 (up 4% p.a. plus dividends peak-to-peak from '66 in spite of a liquidity crisis and wage-price controls) before losing half it's value by late '74. << and like i said before, after accounting for inflation 4%/yr didn't make you shit. >> From the '74 low, it gained 13% or so p.a. over the next 6 1/2 years until the prime rate hit 21% at the end of '80 (not to mention $40 oil, $850 gold, the Hunt Brothers and the Iran Hostage Crisis). Inflation didn't hit double digits until the end of the period, so I think (real) money was made. << sorry my friend. inflation (the cpi) hit 11% in 1974. inflation was around 6% in 1970. inflation doubled throughout the seventies. the averages did not.

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