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Strategies & Market Trends : DAYTRADING Fundamentals
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To: catman who wrote (13589)8/16/2001 2:36:08 PM
From: Wayners  Read Replies (1) of 18137
 
When using TA, its only good at forecasting the length of the next cycle. The further out you want to look ahead, the longer the time period of individual bars need to be and you also have to be able to stomach more day to day volatility. If you zoom way out and you notice that there are no cycles, then you also know that you have no real long term forecastability either, and the trades should be based on a shorter term, until you can finally identify clear cycles. You might have to zoom all the way into an intraday chart till you finally see any cyclic patterns. Every stock is different and has to be traded as such based on its individual characterists. Its helped me greatly to devise screening indicators that will mathematically categorize their past and hopefully predict their future behavior so that I have a better notion of whats a reasonable hold time. Stocks with no discernible cycles tend to be good buys at the close of down bars and sells at the close of up bars wheras stocks with nice wave like cyclic oscillations tend to be good buys at the close of up bars on a fresh reversal in direction and a sell at the close of a down bar on a fresh reversal down. Don't be afraid to look at weekly charts with say a 3 week moving average on it so you know whether you're fighting say an institutional trend.
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