The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who started this subject	8/16/2001 4:57:45 PM
From: Mark Ivan	Read Replies (1) of 306849

Interesting piece in Time Mag. this week. It states how the bond traders are keeping the 10 yr bond yield up in the face of AG cutting short term rates. Thus, mortgage rates are pretty much where they were at the beginning of the year. Real estate has been the one thing to hold up well in this economy. The article goes on to state that if real estate price start to crack, those bond traders might finally decide the economy COULD still get a lot worse and throw in the towel, driving bond prices up and yields down. This should in turn will allow long term mortgage rates to come down again (finally) and spur a fury of re-financing and home buying, thus providing support for the economy and real estate. From this, I would expect real estate to drop a bit, and then if rates fall, be propped up again. If the market recovers a bit into next year and housing does stay strong, then would be the time to start shorting real estate. At this point, interest rates will be at a low and the fed may be forced to start raising rates into a less then stellar economy. Mark

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