REITS - Buying 1 - 2 weeks before going ex-dividend Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : REITS - Buying 1 - 2 weeks before going ex-dividend

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To: James Kibler who wrote (2155)	8/16/2001 5:25:54 PM
From: Richard Barron	Read Replies (1) of 2561

Jim, Fortunately I sold most of TEE near 25 after the dividend. I bought in today at 20. It may well be another GTA, but I think it was mostly the after shocks from the Merrill downgrade. The key will be 2 points. Is TEE overleveraged like GTA with strict covenants? They are very exposed to variable rate notes which are extremely low currently. Is their major tenant solid? If the courses are generating less revenue, there will be trouble eventually. There has been too much building of courses for a few years, but they keep building them. I have no idea who lends the money, or why? The lenders have shut down speculative building of every other type of real estate. I am cautiously optimistic that TEE has enough room to maintain the dividend even if FFO drops, which TEE wasn't predicting - FFO of 3.31-3.36 in 2001 and 3.61-3.66 in 2002 according to the 8/14 earnings report. THERE DEFINITELY IS RISK. GL looks inexpensive compared to many of the REITs. So does HIW. I agree with zebraspot that there is more downside than upside on preferreds unless one thinks the economy is in deep trouble and a few more rate cuts are available. Richard

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