Commodities - The Coming Bull Market Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Scripts who wrote (686)	8/16/2001 5:31:49 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (2) of 1643

originally i said that greenspan caused the bubble and it's consequences by fostering too much credit creation, not too little as some have claimed. many people say greenspan is being too tight. (the government with it's lack of fiscal discipline is also to blame). you asked, "when did that happen?" i thought you might be interested in that article which details the rapid expansion of money supply in recent years. i don't believe it was a coincidence that the rapid increase in money supply occurred at the same time as a blow-off in the markets. money supply growth really took off after 1994-1995, and so did our markets. greenspan is up to his old tricks again, running the printing presses full bore. it doesn't seem to be working this time. the money isn't flowing into stocks. it's sitting in cash and bonds and real estate, etc. my main point is that in the next few years and for probably the whole decade, the excess liquidity is going to start flowing into hard assets such as commodities as consumers try to protect their savings from the ravages of inflation. all the pundits on cnbc and in the press keep saying there is $2 trillion on the sidelines just waiting to get in at the right moment. they ignorantly assume that the money parked into bonds and in money markets will automatically flow back into stocks as soon as the time is right. i think they are dead wrong. i believe that money (slowly at first) will seek out hard assets and then pick up steam. around 2003-2004 or so we should have our first run-in with major price inflation, but i doubt it will be the top. >> but I agree that there is no inflation to speak of now << just as the full effect from rate cuts takes a while to filter through to the markets, there is also a lag between monetary inflation and the more often quoted price inflation that people follow so much. so if you wait until inflation is readily apparent, by then it is too late. inflation as gauged by the cpi is running about the same rate as it did throughout most of the 90's--around 3%. yet the global economy is in the toilet and demand is falling off rapidly. what happens if growth returns? do you think commodity prices will keep falling as the world economy rebounds? hah! fat chance. what will greenspan do then? how can he tighten right as the economy is staging a recovery? he will be under serious political pressure and there will be a serious outcry from the public if he starts to tighten to head off inflation right as the economy mounts a comeback. the only way to keep inflation down is to keep the world economy in the doldrums. that's why mr greenspan has gotten himself into quite a pickle.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next