Doron Levin: Carmakers hit potholes on road to replace gasoline
August 16, 2001
COLUMN BY DORON LEVIN
BLOOMBERG NEWS
SOUTHFIELD, Mich. -- General Motors Corp. has made clear that the world's biggest automaker won't be replacing its gasoline-powered cars anytime soon.
After years of talk about hydrogen-powered fuel cells for auto engines, General Motors this week said it was designing units to generate power for buildings -- a hint it's not looking to auto sales to recoup hundreds of millions spent on research.
The automaker's strategic sidestep lends weight to Honda Motor Co.'s prediction that hydrogen fuel-cell cars for consumers won't be feasible for at least a decade or two, if then.
Until a few years ago, fuel cells -- which mix hydrogen with oxygen to create electricity -- were said to be impractical for anything but space flights or lab experiments. Then research breakthroughs made them a possibility for vehicles.
In reality, gasoline remains cheap and plentiful. Internal combustion engines have become cleaner and more efficient. And, understandably, the owners of gas stations, refineries and auto-engine factories are reluctant to write off their investments.
Still, inventors, visionaries and their promoters keep promising viable alternatives to gasoline propulsion that will satisfy environmentalists without ruining the automakers.
While Honda and Toyota Motor Corp. each say they will build a handful of fuel-cell vehicles by 2003, "Honda thinks the internal combustion engine will be the main way to power cars for the next 20 to 30 years," said Andy Boyd, a spokesman.
No one can accuse the automakers of leaving many research stones unturned. Last fall, for instance, Honda's U.S. subsidiary acquired a 20 percent stake in a small Canadian company that's exploring natural gas as an alternative to the internal combustion engine.
FuelMaker Corp., a closely held Toronto maker of natural-gas compressors, is working on a telephone-sized home unit that it says would run on electricity and sell for about $1,000.
Honda already sells about 1,000 Civic GX's a year that run on methane gas and cost $20,510, or $4,500 more than gasoline-powered Civics. State and federal tax incentives for cars using alternative fuel may offset some cost. In Michigan, a Civic GX buyer qualifies for about $2,500 in tax credits, said Boyd.
FuelMaker seeks to use the same methane found in stoves and hot-water heaters to fuel cars equipped with modified internal combustion engines.
Theoretically, at this stage, the natural gas compressors FuelMaker is working on would let people refuel their cars overnight in their own garages, said Robert Bienenfeld, American Honda's senior manager of automobile product planning. "People hate to spend time fueling at gas stations anyway."
Bienenfeld said a Honda Civic powered by natural gas emits 26 percent less carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas than a gasoline-powered model. Other pollutants from the natural gas model are negligible, he said.
The excitement about fuel-cell technology as a miracle solution for pollution and energy problems has cooled as engineers learned more about development costs. Technical breakthroughs still haven't overcome the financial hurdles.
While automakers are unsure where fuel-saving technology is heading, they need to be ready to sell alternative-fuel vehicles in the event of tougher regulations, fuel-supply interruptions or in case consumers suddenly demand them.
Natural-gas vehicles have been around for decades, mostly in demonstration projects by utilities. So far the expense is too much for ordinary consumers. Hydrogen, though clean, is costly to produce. Even if fuel cells someday satisfy the budgets of consumers, hydrogen distribution problems remain.
In the U.S., the auto industry's most profitable market, the biggest obstacle to a research breakthrough for an affordable alternative-fuel vehicle probably remains what it has been for years -- an abundant supply of relatively inexpensive gasoline. |
