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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: JRI who wrote (10223)	8/16/2001 8:52:44 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (1) of 209892

JRI -- let's talk about Whoa Nelly for a sec. (Is Nelly related to Katie who barred the door)? What's gonna cause this woeful whoa? Possible causes: reaction to Fed; return of traders; the possibility of Japanese selling in September; the next round of earnings warnings; tax loss selling in late Sept/early Oct. The problem I see is that any of these five elements COULD cause some nastiness. But will all five? There have not been many recent market years that parallel this, so it's possible some of the seasonal effects will be different, yes? It's possible they won't be, too. Maybe enough companies have pre-warned for next quarter that there won't be a spate of warnings to spook the market (disregarding the fact that PEs are out of whack based on the new earnings). Maybe maybe maybe. Now, it's possible ALL these elements will kick in, and the markets will be totally crushed for the next two months. But that seems too easy, too. So how do you see it all playing out? Which of these events is the one to watch for? I have no idea, personally, but think they'll all factor in. Oh, and I TOLD you we wouldn't hit the wedge bottom yet. Nooooo. Too easy if it had just happened. Sigh. the freep

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